Author ORCID Identifier
0000-0003-1395-1051
Date of Award
Summer 8-31-2023
Degree Type
Dissertation
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Department
Computer Science
First Advisor
Pavel Skums
Abstract
The ability to comprehend the dynamics of viruses’ transmission and their evolution, even to a limited extent, can significantly enhance our capacity to predict and control the spread of infectious diseases. An example of such significance is COVID-19 caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this dissertation, I am proposing computational models that present more precise and comprehensive approaches in viral outbreak investigations and epidemiology, providing invaluable insights into the transmission dynamics, and potential inter- ventions of infectious diseases by facilitating the timely detection of viral variants. The first model is a mathematical framework based on population dynamics for the calculation of a numerical measure of the fitness of SARS-CoV-2 subtypes. The second model I propose here is a transmissibility estimation method based on a Bayesian approach to calculate the most likely fitness landscape for SARS-CoV-2 using a generalized logistic sub-epidemic model. Using the proposed model I estimate the epistatic interaction networks of spike protein in SARS-CoV-2. Based on the community structure of these epistatic networks, I propose a computational framework that predicts emerging haplotypes of SARS-CoV-2 with altered transmissibility. The last method proposed in this dissertation is a maximum likelihood framework that integrates phylogenetic and random graph models to accurately infer transmission networks without requiring case-specific data.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.57709/35867163
Recommended Citation
Mohebbi, Fatemeh, "Computational Methods for Assessment and Prediction of Viral Evolutionary and Epidemiological Dynamics." Dissertation, Georgia State University, 2023.
doi: https://doi.org/10.57709/35867163
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