Document Type

Article

Publication Date

7-2014

Abstract

We investigate the predictive power of survey-elicited time preferences using a representative sample of US residents. In regressions controlling for demographics and risk preferences, we show that the discount factor elicited from choice experiments using multiple price lists and real payments predicts various health, energy, and financial outcomes, including overall self-reported health, smoking, drinking, car fuel efficiency, and credit card balance. We allow for time-inconsistent preferences and find that the long-run and present bias discount factors (δ and β) are each significantly associated in the expected direction with several of these outcomes. Finally, we explore alternate measures of time preference. Elicited discount factors are correlated with several such measures, including self-reported willpower. A multiple proxies approach using these alternate measures shows that our estimated associations between the time-consistent discount factor and health, energy, and financial outcomes may be conservative.

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Bradford, D., Courtemanche, C., Heutel, G., McAlvanah, P., & Ruhm, C. (2014). Time Preferences and Consumer Behavior. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, No. 20320. doi: 10.3386/w20320

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