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The Land Acquisition Dilemma: Factors of First-Year Sales Performance in New Home Communities

White, Tara
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Abstract

This dissertation examines land acquisition decision-making and early-stage sales performance in production homebuilding, with a particular focus on the factors that influence first-year sales pace in new home communities. Adopting a two-paper dissertation format, the research integrates empirical analysis with an applied teaching case to contribute to both scholarly understanding and practical decision-making in residential real estate development. The second chapter is a quantitative study that empirically evaluates first-year sales pace across 944 new home communities in Charlotte, North Carolina, from 2005 to 2023 using transaction-level data from Zonda. The study finds that larger communities and those located closer to the city center achieve significantly higher first-year sales pace. Contrary to assumptions surrounding herding behavior or pioneering land acquisition strategies, the findings show no evidence that these approaches produce excess pace. Instead, competitive price positioning and relative product size emerge as significant drivers of early community performance, highlighting the importance of pricing competitively and product-market alignment in land acquisition strategy. The third chapter translates these empirical insights into a teaching case study designed to strengthen student competence in land valuation, market feasibility analysis, and investment decision-making. Through a realistic production homebuilding scenario, students evaluate four competing land acquisition opportunities using local market, competitive, and financial data. The case provides an experiential framework for assessing prospective land deals and developing evidence-based recommendations relevant to residential real estate development and homebuilding careers. Together, the two chapters contribute to academic research by linking empirical evidence on new community performance with an applied instructional environment. The dissertation offers actionable guidance for homebuilders seeking to improve land acquisition decisions while providing an educational tool that prepares students to evaluate the market and financial viability of future residential development opportunities.

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2026-07-28
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Homebuilders; new homes; real estate development; land economics; homebuilder land strategy; new home communities; new construction housing markets; sales velocity; community size and scale effects.
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White, Tara. (2026). The Land Acquisition Dilemma: Factors of First-Year Sales Performance in New Home Communities. Dissertation, Georgia State University. https://doi.org/10.57709/383
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