Testing The Efficacy Of A Defocusing Intervention To Improve Affective Forecasting Accuracy In Younger And Older Adults
Sobel Misieczko, Michael
Citations
Abstract
Affective forecasting, the process of predicting future feelings, is key for decision-making but prone to error. This study examined age differences in affective forecasting accuracy and tested a defocusing intervention aimed at reducing these differences. Prior work suggests that older adults’ heightened sensitivity to focalism (e.g., overemphasizing a salient event while neglecting broader contexts) may underlie reduced accuracy. Participants forecasted their emotions (valence and arousal) before the 2024 U.S. Presidential election and reported actual feelings afterward. Consistent with prior findings, older adults made more accurate forecasts when their preferred candidate won but less accurate forecasts when their candidate lost. Notably, this pattern emerged during a Republican victory, extending previous results observed during Democratic wins, suggesting party context does not alter age-related accuracy patterns. Although the defocusing intervention did not enhance accuracy, these findings clarify its limitations and underscore the need for more refined, targeted strategies to reduce focalism-related forecasting biases.
