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Temperature and Arbovirus Transmission in Florida: A Systematic Review of Climate Change Impacts

Leslie, Christopher
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Abstract

Background: Arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, Mayaro, and Oropouche are an ongoing and increasing concern in subtropical regions, including Florida, as climate change alters environmental conditions. Temperature is a critical determinant of vector competence and virus transmission. Objectives: To synthesize evidence on how temperature influences arboviral transmission and vector competence in Florida and evaluate implications of climate change on future risk. Methods: We systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles, dissertations, and government reports that investigated the effects of temperature on arbovirus transmission or mosquito vector competence in Florida. Studies were eligible if they examined dengue, chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro, West Nile, St. Louis Encephalitis, or Eastern Equine Encephalitis viruses. Five databases (PubMed, Web of Science, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and EBSCOhost) and gray literature sources were searched, with the final search completed in April 2025. Two reviewers independently screened records using pre-defined criteria. Study quality was assessed using a modified version of the Effective Public Health Practice Project (EPHPP) tool. AI-assisted tools supported article screening. Results: From the 932 initially identified records, 46 underwent full-text review, with 11 studies meeting inclusion criteria. Studies covered various arboviruses and mosquito vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Evidence consistently demonstrated temperature-dependent arboviral transmission in nonlinear and temporally complex patterns, with optimal transmission occurring in the 25-30°C range across multiple pathogens. The convergence of findings across ecological niche modeling, surveillance analysis, and laboratory vector competence studies supports integrative approaches to climate-health research. Nine studies were rated as having strong quality, one as moderate, and one as having weak quality. AI-assisted screening tools demonstrated promising efficiency gains, with ASReview identifying 90% of relevant studies within the first half of screening and AIScreenR achieving 85.6% accuracy compared to human decisions. Limitations: Findings were limited by heterogeneity in study designs, inconsistent temperature metrics, and variation in outcome reporting. Several studies lacked adjustment for confounders such as precipitation or urbanization. Conclusions: Strong evidence indicates that increased temperatures facilitate arbovirus transmission and mosquito infectivity in Florida. Climate change may expand the geographic and seasonal range of these diseases. Future research should prioritize integrated study designs that combine environmental monitoring with vector surveillance, employ standardized metrics for temperature exposure and arboviral outcomes, and incorporate both ecological and social determinants of transmission. As climate change continues to alter arbovirus ecology, Florida's role as a sentinel region becomes increasingly important for national disease surveillance and preparedness efforts. Registration: Not registered. Funding: No external funding received. Conflict of Interest: The author has no conflict of interest

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Date
2025-07-17
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Research Projects
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Keywords
Arbovirus transmission, Climate change, Temperature-dependent transmission, Vector-borne diseases, Florida, Systematic review, Aedes aegypti, Public health, Disease surveillance, AI-assisted screening
Citation
Leslie, Christopher. "Temperature and Arbovirus Transmission in Florida: A Systematic Review of Climate Change Impacts." Thesis, Georgia State University, 8/4/2025. https://doi.org/10.57709/ppmw-cb43
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