Document Type
Article
Publication Date
7-2015
Abstract
To guide risk assessment, expected numbers of cases and generations were estimated, assuming a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Our analysis of 36 importation events yielded the risk of observing secondary transmission events at 22.7% (95% confidence interval: 19.3–25.1). The risks of observing generations 2, 3 and 4 were estimated at 10.5%, 6.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Countries at risk should be ready for highly variable outcomes following an importation of MERS.
Recommended Citation
Nishiura H, Miyamatsu Y, Chowell G, Saitoh M. Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case. Euro Surveill. 2015;20(27):pii=21181. Article DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.27.21181
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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Originally published in:
Nishiura H, Miyamatsu Y, Chowell G, Saitoh M. Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case. Euro Surveill. 2015;20(27):pii=21181. Article DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.27.21181