Date of Award


Degree Type


Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)



First Advisor

Dr. V. Kumar

Second Advisor

Dr. Alok Saboo

Third Advisor

Dr. Yi Zhao

Fourth Advisor

Dr. Andrew Petersen


To minimize costs and risks, it is critical for firms to identify the success potential of new products early in the new product development (NPD) process. Despite the benefits of early assessment, however, current NPD processes rarely determine product launch decisions at the idea/concept stage. To provide novel insights about ways to predict market outcomes at an early stage, this paper explores the contributions of key elements of new product ideas/concepts (categorized as product features and emotional features) to financial outcomes. Using the motion picture industry of the United States as the study context, this paper assesses films’ return on investments (ROI), by using information available at the idea screening (i.e., greenlighting) stage. A text analysis reveals that product and emotional features of screenplays influence of box office ROI, validating that these proposed features of new product ideas can successfully explain market outcomes. Accordingly, this paper highlights the importance of linking new ideas to market outcomes if the goal is to improve the NPD decision-making process and create a better greenlighting process for movie studios.