Zi ZhuFollow

Date of Award

Summer 5-23-2011

Degree Type

Closed Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)


Mathematics and Statistics

First Advisor

Jiawei Liu

Second Advisor

Gengsheng Qin

Third Advisor

Yuanhui Xiao


Credit Line Analysis plays a very important role in the housing market, especially with the situation of large number of frozen loans during the current financial crisis. In this thesis, we apply the methods of kernel estimate and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve in the credit loan application process in order to help banks select the optimal threshold to differentiate good customers from bad customers. Better choice of the threshold is essential for banks to prevent loss and maximize profit from loans. One of the main advantages of our study is that the method does not require us to specify the distribution of the latent risk score. We apply bootstrap method to construct the confidence interval for the estimate.