Date of Award


Degree Type


Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)


Mathematics and Statistics

First Advisor

Pulak Ghosh - Chair

Second Advisor

Jun Han

Third Advisor

Yu-Sheng Hsu

Fourth Advisor

Xu Zhang


We will propose a random changepoint model for the analysis of longitudinal CD4 and CD8 T-cell counts, as well as viral RNA loads, for HIV infected subjects following highly active antiretroviral treatment. The data was taken from two studies, one of the Aids Clinical Group Trial 398 and one performed by the Terry Beirn Community Programs for Clinical Research on AIDS. Models were created with the changepoint following both exponential and truncated normal distributions. The estimation of the changepoints was performed in a Bayesian analysis, with implementation in the WinBUGS software using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For model selection, we used the deviance information criterion (DIC), a two term measure of model adequacy and complexity. DIC indicates that the data support a random changepoint model with the changepoint following an exponential distribution. Visual analyses of the posterior densities of the parameters also support these conclusions.

Included in

Mathematics Commons