Author ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8087-3511

Date of Award

5-6-2024

Degree Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Political Science

First Advisor

Jennifer McCoy

Second Advisor

Carrie Manning

Third Advisor

Charles Hankla

Abstract

This dissertation examines opposition political parties’ electoral strategies in authoritarian settings. To understand how and when opposition political parties pave the way for autocratic reversal, I build on research showing that the opposition can more effectively challenge the autocratic incumbent through electoral strategies, and I examine the opposition coalitions formed to remove the incumbent. Thus, I investigate an understudied aspect of autocratic reversal: “Under what conditions do some opposition parties in electoral authoritarian regimes successfully form a pre-electoral coalition (PEC), while others fail to coordinate?” I theorize on two factors: internal organization and cohesiveness of each party, and ideological polarization of parties. More importantly, I argue that these two factors are not independent of each other and that different combinations of these two factors matter in coalition-building.

Relying on a mixed-methodological approach, I offer cross-sectional and cross-temporal evidence on PEC formation. My research shows that party institutions matter. Particularly, I find that highly polarized opposition parties can come to an agreement only if they have a strong internal structure. Using case studies, I explain this counterintuitive finding by focusing on opposition learning under democratic erosion and institutional setting. I contribute to the emerging literature on opposition coordination and provide critical insights for opposition actors at the normative level. In the first empirical chapter, I use an original dataset to test the implications of the theory. In the second empirical chapter, I assess the validity of my analysis using a diagnostic causal case approach and focus on influential and pathway cases. In the final empirical chapter, I investigate the proposed question using the case of opposition political parties in Turkey.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.57709/36931492

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