Date of Award
Master of Arts (MA)
Are U.S. airstrikes on al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula effective at reducing al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula initiated attacks? Airstrikes have been a popular counterterrorism tool in the Obama and Trump administrations. However, the effectiveness of airstrikes has been contentious. Using ACLED data from 2016-2019 I estimate a series of negative binomial regressions. I first assess the effect of airstrikes generally and find that airstrikes are effective at reducing AQAP attacks. I then disaggregate my airstrike variable to examine the effects of militant casualties, leadership casualties, and civilian casualties independently. I find that civilian casualties and leadership casualties have no effect on AQAP attacks while militant casualties have reduced AQAP attacks.
Allen, Joshua, "Testing the Effects of US Airstrikes on Insurgent Initiated Violence in Yemen." Thesis, Georgia State University, 2019.