Date of Award
Master of Science (MS)
Mathematics and Statistics
Sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, developments, and infrastructure. Based on the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) system data, we developed a two-stage model; firstly, the Bayesian Network (BN) is used to define relationship among driving forces; secondly, the logistic regression is used to evaluate direct association for direct factors related to Shoreline Erosion. Using this two-stage approach, increased sea-level (OR: 4.03[3.72,4.38]), higher Wave Height (OR: 0.56[0.54,0.61]), smaller Tidal Range (OR: 1.68[1.52,1.87]) and smaller Coastal Slope (OR: 0.45[0.44,0.49]) are directly associated with Shoreline Erosion in Atlantic Ocean; Geomorphology setting (OR: 9.35[6.33,14.18]) in high risk regions, such as beaches, is identified as direct association with Shoreline Erosion in Gulf of Mexico; Smaller tidal range (OR: 0.10[0.04,0.27] directly associated with Shoreline Erosion in Pacific Ocean. These direct factors were evaluated predictive ability with accuracy rates 0.59 and AUC 0.63.
Chen, Le and Chen, Le, "Seeking Direct Coastal Erosion Associated Factors in the United States Shorelines." Thesis, Georgia State University, 2016.