Policy Evaluation and the Causal Analysis of Public Support

Authors

Stefano Carattini, Georgia State University, CESifo, London School of Economics and Political Science, University of St. GallenFollow
Rober Dur, Erasmus University RotterdamFollow
John List, University of Chicago

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

10-31-2024

Abstract

Many policies that are generally considered socially desirable by the scientific community, based on modeling and causal empirical analyses, are not very widespread. The main driver is often lack of public support at baseline (“ex ante”). Yet, there is evidence that when voters hold biased beliefs ex ante about a given policy, experiencing the policy first-hand may lead them to correct their beliefs and increase public support. If it was widely documented that opposition to sound policies in part dissipates when voters experience a given policy, then more policy-makers may be inclined to experiment with policies that scientists recommend but that are unpopular ex ante. Systematically combining policy evaluation with causal analysis of public support would allow scholars to create a body of knowledge on the conditions under which policies become more (or less) popular after implementation and what are the drivers of changes in beliefs and public support.

Recommended Citation

This is a manuscript version of the article published in Science. Stefano Carattini et al. ,Policy evaluation and the causal analysis of public support.Science386,490-492(2024).DOI:10.1126/science.adp7497